Lab 7: An Analysis of the Los Angeles Station Fire of 2009

Image taken from 'Angry Fire', CNN.com    

     In August of 2009, a rapidly spreading wildfire, whose cause was ultimately determined as arson, swept through Los Angeles County.  Later deemed the Station Fire of 2009, it was the largest in the history of Los Angeles County and the tenth largest in the history of California (as recorded since 1933) (“State of the Climate Wildfires Annual 2009”).  The fire consumed approximately 160,000 acres and was, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, one of the year’s most destructive (“State of the Climate Wildfires Annual 2009”).  Raging for nearly two months, the fire prompted the evacuation of thousands and the closure and damage of several high-traffic highways.  Although the evacuation and treatment of those affected by the fire was successful, it is uncertain whether similar measures will be as effective if the population continue to develop around currently desolate pars the county.  Through careful analysis of projected population growth, it is hypothesized that Los Angeles County will need to adapt to ensure continued successful fire safety and prevention.

      

     

      Analysis of the fire’s extent over time offers significant insight into the growth and spatial impact of the Station Fire.  Data for the fire perimeters was taken from Geography 7 Website.  As seen on the Temporal Spread map, the Station Fire’s perimeters greatly expanded within a very short period of time.From the initial reading on August 29^th, the fire approximately doubled and quadrupled in size within the first twelve and twenty-four hours, respectively.  Additionally, it should be noted that the fire was located in approximately the center of the County.  Surely, the enormity of the fire inspired the County to reconsider its current fire policies, but what is even more pressing is the adjustment of policy and infrastructure in the case of a future fire.           

     Analysis of projected urban growth for Los Angeles County suggests that County government will need to adjust its road network for the sake of fire safety.  To visualize the growth of the Los Angeles community in the coming years, data from the Cal-Atlas Geospatial Clearinghouse was obtained and combined with the extent of the Station Fire to examine the consequences if such a fire were to reoccur.  Expected population growth, particularly in areas close to the fire, was chosen to closely examine the new communities potentially affected by potential fire.  As seen on the Proximity map, a substantial number of new communities are projected to be in areas close to the fire. 

If this dispersion is compared with an aerial photograph of the smoke impact of the original Station Fire (seen below), it is clear that, if not by direct impact, new communities will be affected by the resulting smoke cover.  This smoke assessment, along with the physical growth of the fire, would surely result in greater numbers of evacuees than in the Station Fire. 

This image was extracted from "Wildfires in Southern California", The Boston Globe

The increase in necessary, or voluntary, evacuation would directly impact the traffic flow out of affected communities.  As seen on the Proximity map, the current (and planned) number of highways in the areas for projected communities is rather limited.  For example, the communities to the west of the Station Fire region only have about five major highways available to them.  To ensure an effective evacuation process, the County would need to reconsider the highway distribution in those areas.  If access remains that limited, it would undoubtedly result in severe traffic problems that could seriously impede people’s safety and the accessibility of medical and fire services. 

Clearly, the County must take future urban planning into account when devising new policies for fire safety.  Using the method proposed by Preisler and his colleagues, the County could determine the probability of another fire and its risk occurring in the same area and to the same extent as the Station Fire (Preisler et. al).  While it is assumed that the development of roadways will be significantly impacted by future emerging communities, the County should have disaster safety in mind to prevent unnecessary grief in the event of another fire. 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

“Angry Fire’ Roars Across 100,000 California Acres,” CNN U.S.  31 August 2009.

http://articles.cnn.com/2009-08-31/us/california.wildfires_1_mike-dietrich-firefighters-safety-incident-commander?_s=PM:US.  Accessed 18 November 2010.

Cal-Atlas Geospatial Clearinghouse: Download Data. http://atlas.ca.gov/.  Accessed 16

November 2010.

“State of the Climate Wildfires Annual 2009.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration.  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=fire&year=2009&month=13.

Accessed 18 November 2010.

Preisler, Haiganoush et al.  “Probability Based Models for the Estimation of Wildfire Risk,”

International Journal of Wildland Fire.  2004.

http://stat-www.berkeley.edu/~brill/Papers/WF02061.pdf.  Accessed 18 November 2010.

“Wildfires in Southern California,” The Boston Globe.  2 September 2009.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/09/wildfires_in_southern_californ.html

Accessed 18 November 2010.